| Who made the prediction: | Arthur Hayes |
| Prediction Details: | $BTC to $200k |
| Target Date: | 3/31/2026 |
| Prediction Date: | 12/19/2025 |
| Status: | incorrect |
| Prediction Platform: | Substack Essay |
| Price Range on Prediction Date: | Around $88k |
Settlement Conditions
Predictor: Arthur Hayes Made: December 19, 2025 Source: Essay titled “Love Language”
Hit condition: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reaches or exceeds $200,000 USD at any point before the end of March 2026.
Miss condition: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fails to reach $200,000 USD at any point before the end of March 2026.
Outcome: MISS — Bitcoin did not reach $200,000 by end of March 2026. As of March 30, 2026, BTC is trading at approximately $67,603, roughly 66% below the predicted target.
“As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” Hayes wrote.